WNBA: Friday Game Previews & Predictions

There are two WNBA games on the slate Friday, including the two teams from the Commissioner’s Cup.

Thursday went well, with my picks going 4-0. The model has been reliable, but I’m failing to get on the right side of market movements. Even though my picks won, I lost a lot of closing line value.

Las Vegas Aces vs. Indiana Fever Prediction

The Las Vegas Aces won the Commissioner’s Cup in Chicago and have traveled to face the Indiana Fever.

My Numbers

Las Vegas Aces 165.3
Indiana Fever +12.5

The model offers up a stark contrast between the best and worst teams in the WNBA. While my numbers have the Aces as a -12.5 point favorite, I would venture to say that’s four points fewer than it should be.

The line opened Aces -14 with a total of 173.5. Las Vegas has turned a corner, and night in and night out, they’re the best team on the court. Some results haven’t shown that, but it’s hard to dispute the talent.

While I trust my model, I do not trust the Indiana Fever. They’re on a 12-game losing streak, and there’s no reason for that to change against the Western Conference favorite. I’ll look towards the under and Aces in this one.

New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Prediction

The New York Liberty head to face the runner-ups to the Commissioner’s Cup, Chicago Sky, who lost 93-83 at home to the Aces.

My Numbers

New York Liberty 163.9
Chicago Sky -9.8

The Sky should be 10-point favorites in this one with a total on the edge of 164. I wrote that last sentence on Wednesday, and this matchup landed right on the opening line of Sky -10 and a total of 164.5.

I want to be on the Sky in this game, but the market may be betting the Liberty as I see some -9.5 on the board. I want to be backing the better team in this matchup, but I’m going to hold off and see if the pre-game line moves in my favor or if I can find something in-game.

At this point, there’s only a half point of value on the total. I’m looking for line movement in either direction. If the total goes down to 162.5, I’ll bet over. If it moves to 166.5, I’ll take over. Otherwise, I won’t be playing the total.