WNBA: Thursday Game Previews & Predictions

There are just two WNBA games on Thursday.

On Wednesday, my picks went 2-1 with a wild game in Atlanta. The Dream was leading by 28 at halftime. The lead was cut to 6 points in the fourth quarter. The Fever couldn’t pull off the upset. I win my side and total bets. In Seattle, Minnesota never showed up, lose that one early.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun Prediction

The Phoenix Mercury travels to face the Connecticut Sun for the second straight game. The Sun beat Mercury 87-63 in a decisive victory.

Model Numbers

Phoenix Mercury 162.6
Connecticut Sun -7.7

My model has the Sun as a reasonable -7.5 point favorite with a total of 162.5. The markets opened with Connecticut -11.5 and a total of 165.5. Since then, the markets have fluttered about.

I’ll begrudgingly trust the model and take the current line of Phoenix +12. I don’t like this spot, but my feelings have cost me money in the recent past, so I’m trusting the numbers. As long as Phoenix plays their average, they will cover.

The total has moved down. I’ll follow the market and take under 164.5. I wish I could bet the opener, but I waited until midnight, and it never came. By the time I was at my desk, the markets had moved. What can you do about it?

Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Prediction

The Las Vegas Aces visit the Dallas Wings for a 5:00 PM tipoff. These two teams haven’t played each other in a while. The last meetings were in June. The Aces won both games. Vegas won 84-79 at home and the other 92-84 in Dallas.

Model Numbers

Las Vegas Aces 164.8
Dallas Wings +3.4

My numbers have the Aces favored by -3.5 points and a total of 165. I’m still kicking myself for not taking the Mystics ML in Vegas’ last game. The model said Vegas were dogs, and I couldn’t get myself to do it.

I need to learn to trust my numbers.

If I’m going to trust my numbers against two fast-paced teams, I’m betting under 173 available at Bookmaker and Dallas +7.5.

I expect this total to climb a little higher. Bookmaker hung a number 1.5-2 points higher than the rest of the market, so I’ll take that. If these teams play their average, I’ll cash both tickets.