WNBA: Thursday’s Game Previews & Predictions

After Tuesday’s Commissioner’s Cup, where the Aces won outright as 3-point underdogs, the WNBA returns to a regular schedule.

I was on vacation for the last few days, and while I was away, I didn’t focus on the league much. I saw some news regarding Liz Cambage, which I’ll discuss below, but I took the time to refocus.

When I got into the office, I reviewed my numbers because the projections have missed the last few games. I made some minor adjustments, updated current roster projections, and am looking forward to Thursday’s slate of games.

Minnesota Lynx vs. Atlanta Dream Prediction

The first game on Thursday is between the Minnesota Lynx and Atlanta Dream, two teams on the bottom half of the standings.

My Numbers

Minnesota Lynx 165.1
Atlanta Dream +0.6

My model suggests the last-placed Lynx will be competitive on the road against the Dream. I don’t know if I buy that. Minnesota is 4-9 on the road, last the last three, and looks uninspired.

On the other hand, the Dream is fighting for a playoff spot. Their 12-16 record is nothing to be impressed by, but this game opened a pick-em and has moved to Atlanta -1.5, which I think is the right direction.

My total is right where the market opened at 165.5. Since opening, money has come in on the under and moved three points to 162.5. I think the play here is to take over 162.5 and hope for a very competitive game.

Seattle Storm vs. Connecticut Sun Prediction

Next, we have a 4:00 PM PDT tipoff between two second-placed teams, the Seattle Storm and Connecticut Sun.

My Numbers

Seattle Storm 159.5
Connecticut Sun -7.1

The model likes the Sun a lot. Seattle is a good team, but they haven’t looked as competitive in the last two weeks. The game opened Connecticut -3 and has bounced between -3 and -3.5 depending which sports book you are at.

The total is low because both teams have a slow pace and low defensive ratings. If I bet this yesterday, I would have taken under 160. Today I’m seeing the movement down to 158.5 and am considering taking over the total.

I probably don’t end up on the total, but I bet Connecticut Sun -3.

Washington Mystics vs. Dallas Wings Prediction

The night’s third game is between the Washington Mystics and Dallas Wings.

My Numbers

Washington Mystics 165
Dallas Wings +3.3

This is a weird one. My model has the Wings +3.3 and the total at 165. Both of those numbers are dramatically inflated against the current market price.

Dallas isn’t a particularly good home team, but they’re still three points better at home than on the road. In this matchup, it’s possible to view Dallas as high as a +6 point underdog at home.

I’m going to bet my numbers are better than the sportsbook. I’ll take both the over and Washington Mystics in this game.

Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction

Finally, the Los Angeles Sparks are heading to face the Phoenix Mercury.

My Numbers

Los Angeles Sparks 164.9
Phoenix Mercury -4.0

Liz Cambage’s “divorce” with the Sparks made all the headlines this week. To me, this was only a story, so media outlets could bring up her OnlyFans account and talk about how weird it is the WNBA uses the term “Contract Divorce” instead of the NBA’s “Contract Buyout” terminology.

Regardless of the stupid media narratives around Liz, she was only worth about half a point in this matchup. Will it disrupt team chemistry or flow? That remains to be seen.

The openers invited money on Phoenix and the over. At the current market price, I don’t see any value on the total and very few offerings from the spread. I would look for an over 162 or under 168 in-game. Otherwise, I’m staying off this game.