WNBA: Saturday’s Game Previews & Predictions
The WNBA has two games on Saturday, including an early 9:00 AM PDT tipoff in the nation’s capital.
Friday had a mixed result. In my write-up, I said the Las Vegas Aces should have been -16 point favorites and that I liked the under. Both hit with ease. My model had the game finishing at 165.3. The final total was 165.
After I posted my pick in the New York/Chicago game, news came down that Candace Parker was out with an illness. She moved the needle 3 points in my model. Chicago looked disjointed the entire game. The Sky -8.5 pick lost by the hook, but that’s life betting basketball before tipoff.
Seattle Storm vs. Washington Mystics Prediction
The Seattle Storm continue their road trip to face the Washington Mystics, who are back home after one game.
My Numbers Seattle Storm 159.0 Washington Mystics -6.2
The first line I see on the board is at Caesars with Mystics -3 and a total of 155.5. I think Seattle will attract money, so I’m waiting to bet on Washington.
As for the total, this is a rare snap call where I will take over 155.5. I think the market will chase the over into the 159 range.
Dallas Wings vs. Atlanta Dream Prediction
The Dallas Wings travel to face the Atlanta Dream. It’s kind of an odd matchup between two middling teams.
My Numbers Dallas Wings 165.1 Atlanta Dream -1.2
The opener is pick-em, and I’m not prone to want to back Atlanta in this spot, so I’ll sit it out unless the market moves dramatically in either direction. The total opened 163.5. I think it’s worth betting over here, but I’m not in as big of a rush as I am on the SEA/WAS pick.
My Best Bets
Dallas Wings vs. Atlanta Dream: Total
I’m more hesitant on this pick than on the SEA/WAS total. My model is only two points off. I expect this market to move against me. I’m going to put a single unit down, cross my fingers, and hope the line go down.
Over 163.5 (-110)
Units: 1Seattle Storm vs. Washington Mystics: Total
My number is 159. I don’t like betting overs in the WNBA, but I also don’t like betting under 158. In this spot, my model says I have 3.5 points of value, so I’ll bet the opener over.
