WNBA: Friday Game Previews & Predictions

There are two WNBA games on the slate for Friday. Before diving into my previews, I have to recap what the hell happened Today (Thursday).

I’m writing this with a bottle of Bruichladdich scotch on the desk and a shot pulled in a whiskey glass. I posted four bets on Thursday–Phoenix +12, PHO/CON Under 164.5, Dallas +7.5, and LVA/DAL Under 173.

The under was dead in the first quarter of the PHO/CON. 13 free throws drove the 1Q score up to 53. The in-game line was in the 170s. I saw a 175 offshore. The scoring slowed in the second quarter. It wasn’t dead at halftime with a score of 45-45.

Then the third quarter happened. Phoenix missed 19 consecutive fields and didn’t score a point for over 10 minutes. They scored 19 points in the second half. I have my scotch out because, on the game’s last possession, I’m winning everything. Connecticut was up 11 points. Then Phoenix turns the ball over. The Sun player runs down the court and lays in a basket with 10 seconds left.

Phoenix walks up the court and lets the clock expire without trying a shot. It lands 13. A classic bad beat. But, if the Mercury score during that 10 minutes, the under probably doesn’t cash. Wild.

What the hell just happened?

Connecticut was up by 11, steals runs down court with 18 seconds left, and lays it up.

Wins by 13.

I had +12/+13.

F's in the chat boys.

— McFaderson (@McFadersonNBA) August 5, 2022

Fast-forward an hour. The Aces looked tired all game. Then suddenly, they’re within striking distance in the fourth quarter. I bet the total under at 173 and 174.

The Aces tied the game at 80-80. My heart sinks. My gut knows what’s coming. Overtime is coming. Dallas scores two. It’s 82-80. The Aces had 14 seconds to work with. They come out of a timeout, Kelsey Plum runs a play nothing is forming.

Suddenly a whistle. The coach called a timeout with less than 4 seconds left. Aces inbound the ball to a WIDE OPEN A’ja Wilson. She lays it up. It’s not tall enough. It bounces off the rim. Dallas swats it away for the upset win.

Wild night. I end 3-1, which is probably fair based on how Phoenix played in the first half. Onward.

Los Angeles Sparks vs. Atlanta Dream Prediction

The Los Angeles Sparks are on their third game of a four-game road trip. They will face the Atlanta Dream, who just beat the Fever on Wednesday.

Model:

Los Angeles Sparks 161.5
Atlanta Dream +0.4

The market opened at Circa with a 157 on the board and the Dream favored by -4 points. My model has this game as a pick-em with a total of 161.5.

This is a game where I’m looking for the law of averages to kick in and to see the Sparks get their shot. LA had a tough start to the road trip where they had to travel across the country on their rest day. The result was a 29-point blowout, followed by a 3-point loss the next day, both were against the Liberty.

Starter Chiney Ogwumike is day-to-day and is questionable for the game. She’s worth half a point to the spread if she misses the game.

The Dream hasn’t been good in the last two weeks. They’re 1-4, including a loss to the Sparks in LA 85-78. Tiffany Hayes is out. She’s worth a point to the spread for Atlanta.

I don’t think LA is a bad bet. The model would say you’re getting 4-points of value. I also like the over. I snap-called the over when I saw it at 157 and 156.5. I’m not sure if I’ll get involved with a side, but I lean LA plus the points.

Washington Mystics vs. Chicago Sky Prediction

The second game on Friday night is the Washington Mystics facing the Chicago Sky.

Model:

Washington Mystics 164.6
Chicago Sky -4.6

The market opened with 160 posted and Sky -6.

The Mystics have had a couple of impressive wins against Seattle and Las Vegas this week. A piece of that was Elena Delle Donne, who will be out for Washington.

Chicago is playing for the top seed in the playoffs. But they’ve been inconsistent since the All-Star break.

This game is hard for me to read. Washington is a slow, semi-defensive team. Chicago has a powerful offense. I think the home team will prevail, but I’m not comfortable backing them to cover at the current price of -6. I also don’t trust the Mystics to cover without Delle Donne in the lineup.

I’m comfortable betting over 160, but that’s my limit. I don’t like betting WNBA games over the 150s.