WNBA: Wednesday Game Previews & Predictions

There are three WNBA games on Wednesday’s schedule, including the two worst teams playing each other – absolutely thrilling.

My picks went 2-1 on Tuesday for a nice little profit.

Indiana Fever vs. Atlanta Dream Prediction

The Indiana Fever take their 14-game losing streak on the road to face the Atlanta Dream.

My Numbers

Indiana Fever 162.4
Atlanta Dream -11.2

The betting market opened 161 or 160.5 for the total and the Dream -8.5/-9 at most sportsbooks. I’m going to trust the model and hope for consistency.

I have bet Atlanta Dream -8.5, and I found a 159.5 at Circa that I bet over. If the Dream can manage to play their game and simply score their averages, they should easily cover this game despite being just one place above the Fever in the Eastern Conference.

I will sit with these two bets and cross my fingers rooting for a high-scoring Dream.

Los Angeles Sparks vs. New York Liberty Prediction

On Tuesday, the Los Angeles Sparks were dominated by the New York Liberty 102-73. On Wednesday, they’ll play the second of a back-to-back.

My Numbers

Los Angeles Sparks 159.7
New York Liberty +1.4

How do you ‘cap a back-to-back like this? LA lost by 29 points. In my game preview, I mentioned that LA had to travel across the country and play with one day of rest, which was a full travel day.

Now they have to play their third game in four nights after being blown out. My numbers are unchanged from yesterday. I have the Sparks as -1.5 point favorites with a total near 160.

I don’t have an opinion here. The market opened Liberty -6 with a total of 165.5. My gut instinct is to play the under, but I can’t convince myself the model is right because the recency bias is so strong.

I’m talking myself into it; I’ll probably end up on the under in this game.

Minnesota Lynx vs. Seattle Storm Prediction

The nightcap is between the Minnesota Lynx and Seattle Storm.

My Numbers

Minnesota Lynx 163.5
Seattle Storm -1.2

Neither one of these teams are very impressive right now. Seattle is home for their first game after a 3-game east coast road trip. Minnesota travels to Seattle after a win in LA on Monday.

Circa is the only book with numbers on the board for me at the moment. They have Storm -7 with a total of 160.5. I’m going to take the underdog. I don’t watch a lot of WNBA games, but the times I’ve watched the Storm, I’m a bit baffled how they’re second in the Western Conference.

Recently, the Storm hasn’t looked good. I will test the NBA theory that the first game back from an east coast road trip produces tired legs. I’ll be on the Lynx. I’m not sure about the total. I don’t like betting WNBA overs and I feel like passing on this one.