WNBA: Tuesday Game Previews & Predictions

The WNBA is back on Tuesday after a Monday without no games. Three games are tipping off at 4:00 PM and one at 6:00 PM.

On Sunday, my picks went 1-1 with overtime spoiling my under on CHI/CON.

Phoenix Mercury vs. Connecticut Sun Prediction

The Phoenix Mercury continue their road trip as they play the Connecticut Sun. New York destroyed the Mercury on Sunday.

My Numbers

Phoenix Mercury 162.6
Connecticut Sun -7.7

The odds opened with the Sun -10 and a total of 166. The total is going up. I put a bet in on Under 168.5 at Circa here in Las Vegas. That’s a point and a half off the offshore market.

Connecticut has a strong defense. They lost in overtime on Sunday, but I think they’ll come back and be able to beat a weak-looking Phoneix team.

My numbers say play Mercury here, but I can’t put money behind Phoenix. It’s probably the right play, but I don’t want to risk it. If the number moved to 11.5 or 12, I would consider it. Most likely, my only bet will be Under 168.5.

Las Vegas Aces vs. Washington Mystics Prediction

The Las Vegas Aces continue their road trip after dominating the last-place Fever twice in a row. The Aces will face the Washington Mystics in DC.

My Numbers

Las Vegas Aces 160.4
Washington Mystics -3.9

I don’t believe my numbers on Washington at all. I calculate my spreads and totals heavily rely on custom offensive and defensive ratings that I create with player lineups.

My numbers regarding the strength of the Mystics’ sides have been off in the last few games. Likewise, the Aces were only favored by -12.5 by the model against Indiana. I felt like those were 4 points too short. I was right.

So what do I do with this number? Well, I trust the total. Washington is a defensive team with a slow pace. I took Under 166.5 at Circa right before typing this preview. I will stay off the sides because I’m not sure what’s up with my numbers, but playing Mystics +5 may be tempting.

Los Angeles Sparks vs. New York Liberty Prediction

The Los Angeles Sparks head out on the road after a 7-point loss at home to Minnesota. They travel across the country to face New York Liberty.

My Numbers

Los Angeles Sparks 159.7
New York Liberty +1.4

The markets are overvaluing the Liberty at -4. But I understand why. LA hasn’t been particularly good. They traveled across the country on their one rest day. Remember, WNBA fly commercial, so that’s not a glamorous journey.

I like betting under 162.5. I think 3 points of value are enough. My hunch is that LA will feel that travel. I want to back New York, but not at the current price. I’ll be under, but I probably won’t have a side until in-game.

Dallas Wings vs. Chicago Sky Prediction

The Dallas Wings and Chicago Sky will close out the night. Chicago comes off a 3-point overtime win against the Sun, while Dallas dominated Atlanta in their last game.

My Numbers 

Dallas Wings 166.8
Chicago Sky -5.5 (w/out Candace Parker)
Chicago Sky -7.7 (with Candace Parker)

The market is priced as if Candace Parker will play, and I haven’t seen any official news from the team. I’m skipping the side until the lineup is confirmed. So I won’t have a bet posted here, but maybe on my Twitter.

As for the total, I see minimal value on the current odds of 167.5. It appears the market is moving, and I’ll probably wait until tomorrow afternoon to assess if I make a bet. Right now, I’m leaning under.